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Depends on the game. However, the FX-4100 isn't really a bottleneck per se in about 90% of games. It will probably be the limiting factor in Battlefield 3 (especially online) and perhaps a few other games, but for almost everything out there, the GPU is the biggest performance decider.
Overclock it to at least 4.3 GHz and it shouldn't hold you back in any games other than BF3 (if you even play that one).
And of the cards you mentioned, here are my thoughts (because you totally asked)
The 6950 has the advantage of being less expensive (for the performance) and since it's PCI-E 2.1 it won't be limited by AMD not supporting PCI-E 3.0. However, it is a last-gen card.
The 7850 is really one of the best price / performance cards out right now. The difference between it and a 7870 is there, it's just a matter of if it's worth the money to you personally.
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